Kentucky @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

3-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

2-2 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

UK -13

✓ UK W

Total

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 33–20 VAN

✓ UK (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -13

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUK -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -13

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 13-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 45–28; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 50, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 13; 64.4 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	CCU @ TROY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	42–38	L	O52.5
Close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Close	MRSH @ LT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	35–17	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WLW	2-1	67%	—	2-1
VAN LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: UK away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
VAN OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UKlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
VANlast 4	2-2 50%	0-4 0%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+6.1 →+6.1–#34

VAN+2.1 →−5.6▼ 7.7#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

VAN

#39

Offense

◀ UK better

#70

#29

Defense

◀ UK better

#91

0.0 #67

Turnovers

◀ UK better

−0.5 #104

53 plays #131

Pace

VAN faster ▶

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #40	29.3 #102	UK
Yards / play	7.61 #13	5.60 #84	UK
PPA / play	+0.24 #42	+0.14 #102	UK
Success rate	43% #61	40% #76	Even

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	VAN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #43	11.3 #12	UK
Yards / play	6.18 #46	4.38 #23	UK
PPA / play	−0.01 #117	−0.08 #26	UK
Success rate	42% #72	37% #54	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

UK scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	3.3 #100	11.3 #43	14.7 #72	11.7 #10	9.3 #33	21.0 #12
VAN allowed	3.3 #47	12.0 #116	15.3 #104	5.0 #72	9.0 #102	14.0 #96

VAN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	7.3 #46	8.8 #71	16.0 #55	5.3 #90	13.5 #7	18.8 #23
UK allowed	4.7 #70	0.0 #1	4.7 #5	4.3 #54	2.3 #9	6.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.