Western Kentucky @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Troy

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Western Kentucky

2-1 · Power #83

final

Final

Troy

1-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -4

✓ WKU W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 27–31 TROY

✓ TROY (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -4

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -4

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 4-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 58, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 4.6; 55.5 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	17–48	L	O58
Very close	TLSA vs MEM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–29	W	O60.5
Very close	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	TULN vs TEM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.75	38–3	W	U57.5
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
TROY LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU –OO	2-0	100%	2-1
TROY OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 46% of games with totals 54–62 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKUlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-0 100%
TROYlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →−4.5▼ 7.6#85

TROY0.0 →−3.4▼ 3.4#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WKU

Longer bar = better

TROY

#63

Offense

◀ WKU better

#96

#126

Defense

TROY better ▶

#59

+1.3 #17

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−1.7 #130

69 plays #47

Pace

◀ WKU faster

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #45	29.3 #103	WKU
Yards / play	5.68 #76	4.78 #41	TROY
PPA / play	+0.21 #47	−0.02 #40	Even
Success rate	41% #82	37% #50	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #92	36.3 #123	TROY
Yards / play	5.88 #69	6.71 #127	TROY
PPA / play	+0.01 #112	+0.26 #122	Even
Success rate	37% #112	49% #130	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	11.3 #13	8.0 #76	19.3 #36	7.0 #52	8.0 #45	15.0 #48
TROY allowed	4.3 #69	13.7 #124	18.0 #110	3.3 #41	8.0 #96	11.3 #73

TROY scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	7.0 #47	9.0 #65	16.0 #55	3.3 #106	5.7 #80	9.0 #108
WKU allowed	7.0 #107	17.3 #128	24.3 #129	4.7 #62	7.3 #89	12.0 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.