Sam Houston @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Houston

Weather at kickoff90°F9 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-2 · Power #114

final

Final

Houston

1-2 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -11.5

✓ HOU W

Total

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 16–26 HOU

✓ HOU (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -11.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -11.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like HOU as an 11.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 9 similar games. 45 points went over 37, as in 5 of 9.

Favorite won

8 of 989%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 10.5; 41.2 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Loose	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-10	27–21	L	O41
Loose	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Loose	USU vs UNM 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-14.5	27–10	W	U42.5
Loose	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · loose	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Loose	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · loose	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Loose	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Loose	IOWA vs NU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-11.5	33–13	W	O37.5
Loose	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · loose	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
HOU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU –U	0-1	0%	0-2
HOU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSUlast 2	0-2 0%	2-0 100%	0-1 0%
HOUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−3.3 →−4.1▼ 0.8#83

HOU−2.3 →−5.4▼ 3.1#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SHSU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#136

Offense

HOU better ▶

#114

#23

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#117

−1.0 #124

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+1.3 #19

51 plays #134

Pace

HOU faster ▶

72 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	1.5 #136	31.0 #112	HOU
Yards / play	2.62 #136	6.25 #120	Even
PPA / play	−0.20 #136	+0.22 #115	HOU
Success rate	28% #135	47% #122	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	HOU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #97	13.5 #22	SHSU
Yards / play	4.85 #116	3.99 #12	SHSU
PPA / play	−0.09 #131	−0.07 #27	SHSU
Success rate	37% #111	35% #29	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	1.5
HOU allowed	11.7 #127	6.7 #63	18.3 #112	3.0 #30	4.7 #45	7.7 #27

HOU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.3 #106	6.7 #101	10.0 #110	2.3 #118	7.0 #60	9.3 #108
SHSU allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	0.0	8.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.