BYU @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F9 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

BYU

3-0 · Power #86

final

Final

Kansas

3-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -9.5

✓ KU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 21–29 KU

✓ KU (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -9.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKU -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKU -9.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 9.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 38–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.8 against an average line of 9.4; 56 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Very close	WAKE vs VAN 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	36–20	W	U56.5
Very close	UNC vs VT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	41–10	W	U57.25
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Very close	MD vs MSU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	NEB vs PUR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	23–28	L	U54
Close	TOL vs CMU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	24–23	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
KU LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU –OO	2-0	100%	3-0
KU OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 44 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 45% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-0 100%
KUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+3.3 →+1.8▼ 1.5#54

KU+2.0 →+2.7▲ 0.7#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BYU

Longer bar = better

#101

Offense

KU better ▶

#16

#67

Defense

Even

#70

+0.5 #46

Turnovers

KU better ▶

+0.8 #27

63 plays #106

Pace

KU faster ▶

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	BYU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #65	22.8 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #101	5.03 #54	KU
PPA / play	0.00 #113	+0.06 #66	KU
Success rate	36% #123	42% #87	KU

When KU has the ball

Advantage: KU offense

	KU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #28	21.3 #59	KU
Yards / play	7.07 #18	5.29 #67	KU
PPA / play	+0.38 #12	+0.08 #72	KU
Success rate	56% #6	39% #70	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.0 #28	9.3 #55	18.3 #38	5.7 #79	7.0 #62	12.7 #70
KU allowed	2.3 #20	6.7 #63	9.0 #46	5.0 #68	7.3 #92	12.3 #82

KU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	9.3 #22	9.0 #64	18.3 #38	10.0 #20	9.3 #32	19.3 #21
BYU allowed	5.7 #92	3.3 #17	9.0 #46	4.7 #59	2.0 #3	6.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.