Cincinnati @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Fri, Sep 29, 2023, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F4 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

2-2 · Power #76

final

Final

BYU

3-1 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ BYU W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–24 BYU

✓ BYU (50%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLL	2-2	50%	1-0	—
BYU LLWL	1-3	25%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CIN away; BYU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
BYU –OOO	3-0	100%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CINlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
BYUlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.0 →+3.8▲ 2.8#44

BYU+3.3 →−1.4▼ 4.7#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CIN

Longer bar = better

BYU

#52

Offense

◀ CIN better

#103

#59

Defense

Even

#61

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #47

78 plays #7

Pace

◀ CIN faster

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #57	21.3 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #44	5.29 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.08 #68	Even
Success rate	43% #55	39% #62	Even

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	BYU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #63	21.3 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #106	5.64 #79	CIN
PPA / play	0.00 #118	+0.09 #75	CIN
Success rate	36% #123	36% #28	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	11.0 #14	8.5 #71	19.5 #32	5.8 #75	5.5 #87	11.3 #88
BYU allowed	7.8 #116	2.5 #6	10.3 #56	7.0 #98	4.0 #34	11.0 #68

BYU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	8.5 #32	9.5 #56	18.0 #43	5.0 #85	7.0 #64	12.0 #77
CIN allowed	5.3 #86	4.3 #32	9.5 #52	4.3 #52	5.8 #60	10.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.