Houston @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F15 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston

2-2 · Power #88

final

Final

Texas Tech

1-3 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -9

✓ TTU W

Total

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 22–32 TTU

✓ TTU (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -9

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -9

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 9-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 49–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 52, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 9.2; 45.6 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	13–9	L	U53.25
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	1-1
TTU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
TTU –UUU	0-3	0%	1-3

Went over in Q2. Of 78 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
TTUlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.3 →−2.7▼ 0.4#76

TTU+2.7 →+5.9▲ 3.2#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

HOU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#93

Offense

Even

#84

#92

Defense

TTU better ▶

#45

+1.5 #8

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.3 #65

74 plays #18

Pace

Even

76 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	HOU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #82	24.0 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #93	4.68 #33	TTU
PPA / play	+0.01 #113	−0.04 #28	TTU
Success rate	41% #83	38% #49	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #68	25.0 #73	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #94	5.82 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #91	+0.14 #97	Even
Success rate	41% #82	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.0 #84	8.5 #72	13.5 #79	3.5 #112	7.0 #65	10.5 #98
TTU allowed	5.5 #87	4.8 #39	10.3 #55	1.8 #10	8.3 #100	10.0 #48

TTU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	12.0 #9	2.3 #130	14.3 #76	6.0 #71	5.8 #84	11.8 #82
HOU allowed	10.5 #128	5.0 #42	15.5 #101	2.3 #16	3.5 #20	5.8 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.