Texas Tech @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Baylor · Conference game

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Texas Tech

2-3 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

2-3 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

BAY -1

✓ TTU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

TTU 29–29 BAY

✓ TTU (51%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAY -1

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAY -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAY -1

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 1-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 39–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 1.8; 53.8 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Very close	FSU vs LOU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.25	23–31	L	U60.75
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	35–31	W	O51
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	44–19	W	O53.5
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	34–31	W	O53
Very close	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	35–27	W	O48
Very close	TROY vs JMU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–16	L	U46.25
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	33–34	L	U69.5
Close	UK vs MSST 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	24–2	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLWLW	2-3	40%	0-2	0-1
BAY LPLLW	1-3-1	25%	0-3-1	0-2

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU –UUUO	1-3	25%	2-3
BAY –UUUO	1-3	25%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	1-3 25%
BAYlast 5	2-3 40%	1-3-1 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+2.7 →+5.4▲ 2.7#36

BAY−3.4 →−2.2▲ 1.2#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TTU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#65

Offense

◀ TTU better

#94

#50

Defense

◀ TTU better

#100

+0.2 #58

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #55

72 plays #22

Pace

Even

74 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #40	28.4 #91	TTU
Yards / play	5.59 #76	6.47 #123	TTU
PPA / play	+0.12 #70	+0.20 #112	TTU
Success rate	41% #74	42% #73	Even

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	BAY off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #102	24.8 #66	TTU
Yards / play	5.60 #74	5.04 #35	TTU
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.02 #41	TTU
Success rate	38% #117	39% #58	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	12.4 #7	6.0 #110	18.4 #36	6.2 #72	6.0 #84	12.2 #87
BAY allowed	8.4 #117	10.4 #111	18.8 #119	5.4 #63	4.2 #28	9.6 #39

BAY scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	4.6 #92	5.8 #113	10.4 #114	4.8 #95	8.0 #45	12.8 #79
TTU allowed	7.2 #110	6.6 #56	13.8 #83	1.4 #6	6.6 #73	8.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.