James Madison @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

2-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Troy

1-1 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

TROY -2.5

✓ JMU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 25–25 TROY

✗ TROY (52%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 2.5-point home favorite against JMU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 16–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 2.2; 49.7 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	VT vs ND 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-1	29–32	L	O47
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–10	W	U45
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–21	L	U45
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–21	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—
TROY LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
TROY OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 61% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMUlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
TROYlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.1 →+3.1▼ 2.0#45

TROY0.0 →−5.4▼ 5.4#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

JMU

Longer bar = better

TROY

#44

Offense

◀ JMU better

#76

#53

Defense

◀ JMU better

#74

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−2.0 #131

66 plays #74

Pace

Even

65 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #36	36.0 #120	JMU
Yards / play	6.34 #41	4.94 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #42	−0.02 #42	Even
Success rate	45% #58	40% #76	Even

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	TROY off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #68	19.0 #52	Even
Yards / play	6.35 #40	5.11 #65	TROY
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.07 #75	JMU
Success rate	40% #97	32% #18	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	10.0	7.0	17.0	7.0	13.0	20.0
TROY allowed	5.0	15.5	20.5	3.5	12.0	15.5

TROY scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	10.5	10.0	20.5	5.0	5.0	10.0
JMU allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	10.5	0.0	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.