Georgia Southern @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Wisconsin

Weather at kickoff69°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

2-0 · Power #92

final

Final

Wisconsin

1-1 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -20.5

✓ WIS W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 20–38 WIS

✓ WIS (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -20.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close65.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -20.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 20.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 35–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 65.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 18.7; 68.7 points a game (usually 56.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU vs CMU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	49–21	W	O60.5
Close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-19	52–21	W	O67
Close	FLA vs TENN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-19	38–14	W	U64.75
Loose	UNC vs DUKE 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-19.5	38–7	W	U74
Loose	VT vs LIB 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-17	35–38	L	O67.5
Loose	ORE vs UCLA 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-17.5	38–35	L	O61.5
Loose	UNC vs APP 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19.5	40–34	L	O58
Loose	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-17.5	37–36	L	O64
Loose	UCF vs TULN 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-21	51–34	L	O71
Loose	WKU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-17.5	48–21	W	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO PW	1-0-1	100%	—	—
WIS LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UO	1-1	50%	2-0
WIS OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 2	2-0 100%	1-0-1 100%	1-1 50%
WISlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO+2.5 →+3.5▲ 1.0#39

WIS+6.6 →+8.0▲ 1.4#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

GASO

Longer bar = better

WIS

#46

Offense

Even

#55

#102

Defense

WIS better ▶

#61

−2.0 #130

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

+0.3 #60

76 plays #16

Pace

◀ GASO faster

70 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #57	20.7 #58	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #54	5.04 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #61	−0.02 #40	WIS
Success rate	54% #11	41% #85	GASO

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: WIS offense

	WIS off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #59	23.3 #75	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #43	5.94 #108	WIS
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.19 #107	WIS
Success rate	47% #46	47% #116	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	14.0	12.0	26.0	7.0	8.5	15.5
WIS allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	0.0	7.0	7.0

WIS scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	5.0	6.5	11.5	13.5	5.0	18.5
GASO allowed	0.0	11.0	11.0	3.5	3.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.