Penn State @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

2-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

1-1 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

PSU -14

✓ PSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 34–22 ILL

✓ PSU (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -14

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -14

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 14-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PSU won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 13.7; 58.3 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ LT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-12	35–17	W	O48
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	BSU @ AFA 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	49–30	W	O49
Close	CCU @ TROY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.75	42–38	L	O52.5
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	ND @ BC 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	45–31	W	O51.5
Loose	UNC @ BC 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-14.5	26–22	L	U52.5
Loose	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
ILL LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU –O	1-0	100%	2-0
ILL –U	0-1	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 62% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%
ILLlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+6.6 →+8.5▲ 1.9#17

ILL−0.7 →−0.8▼ 0.1#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PSU

Longer bar = better

ILL

#32

Offense

◀ PSU better

#75

#33

Defense

◀ PSU better

#110

+2.3 #7

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−1.7 #128

78 plays #9

Pace

◀ PSU faster

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	43.7 #16	30.7 #108	PSU
Yards / play	6.02 #61	5.84 #104	PSU
PPA / play	+0.32 #28	+0.23 #115	PSU
Success rate	53% #21	46% #112	PSU

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	ILL off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #110	11.7 #16	PSU
Yards / play	5.60 #79	4.41 #24	PSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	0.00 #52	PSU
Success rate	51% #29	36% #40	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	10.5	14.0	24.5	14.0	12.0	26.0
ILL allowed	8.5	11.5	20.0	6.5	4.5	11.0

ILL scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	10.5	9.0	19.5
PSU allowed	3.5	3.5	7.0	0.0	4.0	4.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.