LSU @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F1 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

LSU

1-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

2-0 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

LSU -9.5

✓ LSU W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 33–26 MSST

✓ LSU (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -9.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -9.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 41–14; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 7.5; 51.9 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-7	14–41	L	U58
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Loose	BSU @ WYO 2020 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9.5	17–9	L	U46.5
Loose	UCF @ FAU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	40–14	W	U61.5
Loose	UL @ USA 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-12	20–18	L	U52.75
Loose	LIB @ SYR 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-6.5	21–24	L	U54
Loose	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	27–34	L	O56
Loose	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Loose	VT @ PITT 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	14–47	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
MSST WL	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU –O	1-0	100%	1-1
MSST UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
MSSTlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU−6.4 →+6.0▲ 12.4#30

MSST+2.3 →+3.3▲ 1.0#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LSU

Longer bar = better

MSST

#15

Offense

◀ LSU better

#82

#90

Defense

Even

#92

+0.3 #60

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+1.7 #12

74 plays #23

Pace

◀ LSU faster

58 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	45.7 #10	24.0 #78	LSU
Yards / play	7.26 #18	5.79 #99	LSU
PPA / play	+0.41 #15	+0.08 #76	LSU
Success rate	54% #15	46% #113	LSU

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #67	23.0 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.94 #67	5.77 #95	MSST
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	+0.28 #125	MSST
Success rate	39% #108	39% #65	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	10.5	19.0	29.5	7.0	11.5	18.5
MSST allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	3.5	5.0	8.5

MSST scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	8.5	8.5	17.0	7.0	12.0	19.0
LSU allowed	8.5	3.5	12.0	5.0	10.5	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.