Tennessee @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee

2-0 · Power #15

final

Final

Florida

1-1 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -5

✓ FLA W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 31–26 FLA

✗ TENN (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 29–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.5 against an average line of 5.2; 60.3 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ WAKE 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	51–45	L	O58
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Close	MICH @ IU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	21–38	L	O55
Close	CCU @ APP 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	U60.75
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	35–24	W	U60
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
FLA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OU	1-1	50%	2-0
FLA –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 47% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENNlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
FLAlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+9.7 →+14.6▲ 4.9#6

FLA−1.7 →+4.7▲ 6.4#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TENN

Longer bar = better

FLA

#27

Offense

◀ TENN better

#43

#11

Defense

◀ TENN better

#27

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−1.0 #108

75 plays #18

Pace

◀ TENN faster

70 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #27	15.5 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #39	4.11 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #30	0.00 #50	Even
Success rate	54% #12	28% #4	Even

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	FLA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #69	13.0 #21	TENN
Yards / play	6.52 #33	3.88 #10	TENN
PPA / play	+0.20 #50	−0.16 #10	TENN
Success rate	53% #19	24% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.0	12.0	17.0	12.0	10.5	22.5
FLA allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	3.5	7.0

FLA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	8.0	6.5	14.5	8.0	7.5	15.5
TENN allowed	1.5	3.0	4.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.