BYU @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arkansas

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

BYU

2-0 · Power #86

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-0 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

ARK -9

✓ BYU W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 19–29 ARK

✗ ARK (76%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -9

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARK -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARK -9

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 9-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 8.6; 49.5 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-9	10–20	L	U53
Close	TCU vs CAL 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	34–32	L	O46.5
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & season form	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Loose	KSU vs MIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	40–12	W	U52.5
Loose	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & spread	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Loose	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	24–21	L	U47
Loose	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Loose	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Loose	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10.5	42–16	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU LL	0-2	0%	—	—
ARK WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU –O	1-0	100%	2-0
ARK OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 40 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYUlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	1-0 100%
ARKlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+3.3 →+0.5▼ 2.8#65

ARK+3.7 →+10.3▲ 6.6#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BYU

Longer bar = better

ARK

#90

Offense

ARK better ▶

#33

#27

Defense

Even

#17

+2.0 #12

Turnovers

Even

+3.0 #2

61 plays #112

Pace

ARK faster ▶

63 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: ARK defense

	BYU off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #82	9.5 #12	ARK
Yards / play	5.34 #95	3.99 #16	ARK
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	−0.25 #5	ARK
Success rate	37% #109	35% #36	ARK

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #21	8.0 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #85	4.54 #32	BYU
PPA / play	+0.47 #10	−0.05 #34	ARK
Success rate	54% #16	34% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 102 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.5	10.5	17.0	3.5	7.0	10.5
ARK allowed	3.0	1.5	4.5	3.5	1.5	5.0

ARK scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	14.0	10.5	24.5	7.0	10.5	17.5
BYU allowed	1.5	0.0	1.5	3.5	3.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.