Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Rutgers
Closing spread
RUTG -7.5
✓ RUTG W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 43 pts
Model before kickoff
TEM 19–26 RUTG
✓ RUTG (68%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseRUTG -7.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseRUTG -7.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close43.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseRUTG -7.5
Total43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
RUTG as a 7.5-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: RUTG won 36–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 69%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 6.4; 45.6 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close | 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 23–10 | W | U48.75 |
| Close | 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest |
-4.5 | 13–22 | L | U44.75 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread |
-9.5 | 12–26 | L | U48.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest |
-6 | 24–31 | L | O44 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest |
-7 | 24–21 | L | U47 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest |
-4.5 | 14–24 | L | U44.5 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread |
-6 | 34–17 | W | O47 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread |
-6.5 | 28–23 | L | O45.5 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest |
-7 | 22–26 | L | O45.5 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form |
-5.5 | 38–24 | W | O52.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Temple has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 30. 57% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 0-0 — | |
| 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
Longer bar = better
#90
Offense
Even#94
#67
Defense
RUTG better ▶#16
+1.0 #40
Turnovers
Even+1.0 #49
77 plays #21
Pace
Even73 plays #31
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| TEM off | RUTG def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.0 #86 | 7.0 #25 | RUTG |
| Yards / play | 4.58 #107 | 3.19 #9 | RUTG |
| PPA / play | +0.11 #78 | −0.35 #9 | RUTG |
| Success rate | 39% #89 | 26% #19 | RUTG |
| RUTG off | TEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.0 #90 | 21.0 #75 | Even |
| Yards / play | 3.90 #123 | 4.89 #66 | TEM |
| PPA / play | +0.15 #68 | +0.04 #71 | Even |
| Success rate | 38% #95 | 35% #56 | TEM |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 2 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TEM7d
RUTG6d
TEM +1 day
Tempo
Fast 150 plays
slowavg 135fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

