UCLA @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at San Diego State

Weather at kickoff82°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

1-0 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

2-0 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

UCLA -13

✓ UCLA W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 28–18 SDSU

✓ UCLA (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -13

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -13

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 13-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 35–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 49, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.7 against an average line of 11.7; 50.9 points a game (usually 56.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BSU @ WYO 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	17–9	L	U46.5
Close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Close	TROY @ USM 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-11	21–9	W	U49.5
Close	UL @ USA 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-12	20–18	L	U52.75
Close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Close	OKST @ KSU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-14	20–18	L	U48.5
Close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Close	BSU @ AFA 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-13.5	49–30	W	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
SDSU WL	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UCLA away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA –	0-0	—	1-0
SDSU –O	1-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 61% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLAlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-0 —
SDSUlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCLA

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#78

Offense

Even

#69

#58

Defense

Even

#65

0.0 #76

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+1.0 #24

60 plays #111

Pace

SDSU faster ▶

63 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #77	20.5 #71	Even
Yards / play	6.95 #33	4.53 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #92	−0.06 #50	SDSU
Success rate	35% #108	41% #87	SDSU

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #71	13.0 #41	UCLA
Yards / play	5.61 #77	4.48 #50	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	−0.06 #52	UCLA
Success rate	46% #53	42% #90	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.