Arizona @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff79°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

1-0 · Power #18

final

Final

Mississippi State

1-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSST -9

✓ ARIZ W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 23–31 MSST

✓ MSST (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMSST -9

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMSST -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMSST -9

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like MSST as a 9-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MSST won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 8 similar games. 55 points stayed under 60, as in 3 of 8.

Favorite won

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 9.2; 73 points a game (usually 54.8). When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UCLA vs FRES 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-11	37–40	L	O64
Loose	TEX vs TTU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9	70–35	W	O62.75
Loose	KU vs DUKE 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	35–27	W	U65.5
Loose	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Loose	OKST vs ASU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-11.75	34–17	W	U58.25
Loose	BUFF vs KENT 2020 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-7.5	70–41	W	O69.5
Loose	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Loose	TCU vs SMU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-9.5	34–42	L	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ W	1-0	100%	—	—
MSST W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ U	0-1	0%	1-0
MSST U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 35% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
MSSTlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

MSST

#24

Offense

Even

#35

#16

Defense

Even

#21

−1.0 #112

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+1.0 #41

53 plays #127

Pace

MSST faster ▶

68 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #46	7.0 #20	MSST
Yards / play	9.02 #5	3.85 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #38	−0.26 #12	MSST
Success rate	71% #5	32% #28	ARIZ

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #18	3.0 #7	Even
Yards / play	7.72 #17	3.77 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #47	−0.41 #5	ARIZ
Success rate	45% #58	32% #31	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.