UTEP @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arizona

Weather at kickoff92°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-2 · Power #115

final

Final

Arizona

1-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -18

✓ ARIZ W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 18–35 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -18

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARIZ -18

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -18

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as an 18-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARIZ won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 57, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 16.9; 58.7 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	6–22	L	U59
Close	ASU vs WSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	21–34	L	O54.5
Close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	45–24	W	O57
Close	LIB vs USM 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	56–35	W	O59.5
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	HOU vs USF 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-17.5	42–27	L	O59
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-20	41–13	W	U58.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-1
ARIZ WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
ARIZ UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 53–61 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEPlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
ARIZlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−4.4 →−7.0▼ 2.6#109

ARIZ+1.3 →0.0▼ 1.3#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTEP

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#84

Offense

ARIZ better ▶

#46

#80

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#34

−1.7 #127

Turnovers

Even

−2.5 #135

67 plays #69

Pace

◀ UTEP faster

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	UTEP off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #126	17.0 #42	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.53 #85	4.53 #33	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	−0.17 #5	ARIZ
Success rate	46% #51	38% #56	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #64	23.0 #72	Even
Yards / play	7.27 #16	5.39 #73	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.13 #96	Even
Success rate	55% #8	40% #78	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.7 #78	4.7 #110	9.3 #112	2.3 #114	4.7 #90	7.0 #117
ARIZ allowed	7.0	1.5	8.5	3.5	1.5	5.0

ARIZ scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	3.5	7.0	10.5	14.0	6.5	20.5
UTEP allowed	5.7 #89	4.7 #37	10.3 #60	9.3 #113	3.3 #25	12.7 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.