Hawai'i @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Oregon

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

1-2 · Power #123

final

Final

Oregon

2-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -37.5

✓ ORE W

Total

67.5

▼ Under · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 13–49 ORE

✓ ORE (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -37.5

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -37.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close67.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -37.5

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like ORE as a 37.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 55–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 4 similar games. 65 points stayed under 67.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 61%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 37.5 against an average line of 36.4; 64.5 points a game (usually 57.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BYU vs UTSA 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-34	27–20	L	U63.5
Loose	USC vs NEV 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-38	66–14	W	O63.5
Loose	TENN vs BALL 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-36.25	59–10	W	O66.5
Loose	TEX vs ULM 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-37.5	52–10	W	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLP	1-1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
ORE WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
ORE OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAWlast 3	1-2 33%	1-1-1 50%	2-1 67%
ORElast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−6.5 →−10.8▼ 4.3#126

ORE+8.3 →+11.5▲ 3.2#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

HAW

Longer bar = better

ORE

#111

Offense

ORE better ▶

#93

Defense

ORE better ▶

#37

−1.0 #114

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+2.0 #8

67 plays #65

Pace

ORE faster ▶

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	HAW off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #99	15.7 #34	ORE
Yards / play	4.91 #108	4.51 #31	ORE
PPA / play	0.00 #113	−0.07 #29	ORE
Success rate	35% #125	37% #52	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	58.0 #2	36.8 #125	ORE
Yards / play	8.35 #4	5.82 #97	ORE
PPA / play	+0.52 #5	+0.09 #78	ORE
Success rate	54% #10	39% #70	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 114 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	5.7 #58	8.0 #67	13.7 #73	2.3 #102	11.7 #9	14.0 #53
ORE allowed	7.0	3.0	10.0	7.0	1.5	8.5

ORE scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	18.5	15.5	34.0	8.5	17.0	25.5
HAW allowed	9.3 #107	10.3 #91	19.7 #106	5.3 #65	5.7 #56	11.0 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.