Colorado State @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Colorado

Weather at kickoff58°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

0-1 · Power #109

final

Final

Colorado

2-0 · Power #72

▲ winner

Closing spread

COLO -23

✓ CSU W

Total

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 20–41 COLO

✓ COLO (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCOLO -23

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCOLO -23

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close63

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCOLO -23

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 23-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: COLO won 43–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 63, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.9 against an average line of 22.3; 48.5 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SMU vs USF 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-21.25	41–17	W	U68.5
Loose	UAB vs CLT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-22.25	34–20	L	U65
Loose	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-26	38–26	L	O60
Loose	MD vs BUFF 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-24	31–10	L	U65.75
Loose	MIZ vs LT 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-20.5	52–24	W	O62.5
Loose	WMU vs NIU 2020 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-18.5	30–27	L	U64.5
Loose	OKST vs TLSA 2020 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-24	16–7	L	U67
Loose	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Loose	UNC vs SYR 2020 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-24	31–6	W	U66.5
Loose	UNC vs GT 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & spread	-21.25	17–21	L	U63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
COLO WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU O	1-0	100%	0-1
COLO –U	0-1	0%	2-0

Went over in OT. Of 23 earlier overs in games with totals 59–67, 39% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%
COLOlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CSU 22–64 COLO (2 tied) COLO leads · 88 games since 1902 · COLO has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−7.1 →−6.9▲ 0.2#108

COLO+3.1 →+3.8▲ 0.7#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CSU

Longer bar = better

COLO

#92

Offense

COLO better ▶

#37

#114

Defense

COLO better ▶

#96

−1.0 #123

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+2.0 #5

76 plays #15

Pace

Even

77 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #72	30.3 #105	CSU
Yards / play	5.67 #77	6.03 #111	CSU
PPA / play	−0.05 #129	+0.05 #66	COLO
Success rate	41% #89	45% #102	Even

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #15	46.5 #132	COLO
Yards / play	6.25 #44	6.13 #116	COLO
PPA / play	+0.26 #38	+0.14 #98	COLO
Success rate	45% #52	46% #110	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.