Wyoming @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff79°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wyoming

2-0 · Power #74

final

Final

Texas

2-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -30

✓ WYO W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 11–39 TEX

✓ TEX (98%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -30

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -30

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -30

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 30-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 31–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26 against an average line of 28.1; 49.4 points a game (usually 57.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs TXST 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation	-30	42–7	W	U53
Close	LIB vs ODU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	45–17	W	O53
Close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-31	45–14	P	O53
Loose	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	ND vs UNLV 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-26	44–21	L	O46.5
Loose	LSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31.5	38–0	W	U44
Loose	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Loose	CLEM vs GT 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	14–8	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
TEX LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO –U	0-1	0%	2-0
TEX UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 55% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYOlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%
TEXlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−2.7 →−6.0▼ 3.3#101

TEX+8.6 →+8.4▼ 0.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WYO

Longer bar = better

TEX

#101

Offense

TEX better ▶

#62

#80

Defense

TEX better ▶

#29

−0.3 #103

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+1.7 #10

66 plays #73

Pace

Even

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	WYO off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #88	14.7 #27	TEX
Yards / play	4.93 #106	4.63 #38	TEX
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	−0.06 #30	TEX
Success rate	39% #100	33% #22	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #48	27.0 #91	TEX
Yards / play	6.08 #56	5.17 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #56	+0.09 #80	TEX
Success rate	41% #86	41% #85	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 114 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	8.5	1.5	10.0
TEX allowed	1.5	3.0	4.5	5.0	7.5	12.5

TEX scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	5.0	9.5	14.5	10.5	10.5	21.0
WYO allowed	8.5	5.0	13.5	0.0	5.0	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.