Texas @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff92°F4 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Texas

3-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

1-2 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

TEX -17.5

✓ TEX W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 35–18 BAY

✓ TEX (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -17.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -17.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 17.5-point road favorite at BAY, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 38–6; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.3 against an average line of 17.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-17	23–3	W	U49
Close	MICH @ MD 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	59–18	W	O57.75
Close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Close	UCLA @ SDSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-13.5	35–10	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2
BAY LPL	0-2-1	0%	0-2-1	0-0-1

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; BAY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
BAY –UU	0-2	0%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEXlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
BAYlast 3	1-2 33%	0-2-1 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+8.6 →+14.2▲ 5.6#11

BAY−3.4 →−2.1▲ 1.3#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TEX

Longer bar = better

BAY

#58

Offense

Even

#71

#24

Defense

◀ TEX better

#75

+1.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

−0.3 #98

67 plays #61

Pace

BAY faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #41	23.0 #67	TEX
Yards / play	6.08 #51	5.41 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #54	+0.13 #91	TEX
Success rate	41% #85	41% #70	Even

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	BAY off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #91	14.7 #24	TEX
Yards / play	6.03 #53	4.63 #32	TEX
PPA / play	+0.17 #56	−0.06 #23	TEX
Success rate	41% #83	33% #17	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	4.3 #95	8.7 #67	13.0 #83	7.0 #48	14.0 #2	21.0 #7
BAY allowed	4.7 #79	8.0 #88	12.7 #83	3.3 #37	7.0 #80	10.3 #64

BAY scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	4.3 #95	8.7 #67	13.0 #83	7.0 #48	4.7 #101	11.7 #84
TEX allowed	3.3 #44	2.0 #6	5.3 #12	4.3 #62	5.0 #51	9.3 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.