Ohio State @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff67°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

3-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Notre Dame

4-0 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

OSU -3

Push

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 29–26 ND

✓ OSU (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -3

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 3-point road favorite at ND, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 17–14; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 4.1; 64.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Close	CLEM @ ND 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	40–47	L	O50.5
Loose	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & spread	-3.5	41–34	W	O56
Loose	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Loose	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Loose	BYU @ BSU 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	51–17	W	O62.5
Loose	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Loose	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	32–42	L	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
ND WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	—

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; ND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
ND –OOO	3-0	100%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 43% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
NDlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+8.6 →+19.0▲ 10.4#2

ND+9.1 →+17.1▲ 8.0#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

OSU

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

Even

Defense

Even

#14

+0.7 #35

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #24

62 plays #113

Pace

Even

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #17	11.8 #11	Even
Yards / play	7.61 #9	3.82 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.49 #7	−0.04 #33	OSU
Success rate	52% #20	31% #8	Even

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #5	6.7 #2	Even
Yards / play	8.27 #4	3.65 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.60 #2	−0.09 #15	Even
Success rate	56% #4	32% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	9.3 #23	17.3 #5	26.7 #6	8.0 #42	5.7 #84	13.7 #66
ND allowed	2.5 #29	3.5 #21	6.0 #17	3.3 #32	2.5 #14	5.8 #15

ND scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	9.5 #20	15.8 #7	25.3 #9	9.5 #23	11.3 #11	20.8 #9
OSU allowed	3.3 #44	3.3 #20	6.7 #21	0.0 #1	0.0 #1	0.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.