Louisiana Tech @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Nebraska

Weather at kickoff81°F9 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

2-2 · Power #116

final

Final

Nebraska

1-2 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -20.5

✓ LT W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 15–33 NEB

✓ NEB (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -20.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNEB -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -20.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 20.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 28–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 19.5; 40.6 points a game (usually 56.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Loose	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20	44–0	W	O42
Loose	WYO vs UNM 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20	3–14	L	U40.5
Loose	IOWA vs NEV 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24	27–0	W	U39.5
Loose	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Loose	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-18	20–21	L	P41
Loose	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Loose	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-19.5	25–6	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
NEB WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT ––OO	2-0	100%	2-2
NEB –UO	1-1	50%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 53% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LTlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-0 100%
NEBlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−2.5 →−5.2▼ 2.7#91

NEB+0.1 →−0.3▼ 0.4#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

NEB

#72

Offense

◀ LT better

#86

#89

Defense

NEB better ▶

#44

−0.4 #99

Turnovers

◀ LT better

−1.3 #126

66 plays #77

Pace

◀ LT faster

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	LT off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #78	18.5 #42	NEB
Yards / play	5.99 #61	4.46 #26	NEB
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.07 #66	Even
Success rate	42% #71	36% #40	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #105	28.8 #102	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #72	5.49 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #101	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	42% #67	41% #83	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

LT scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	2.5 #110	12.0 #33	14.5 #75	6.8 #68	9.8 #28	16.5 #41
NEB allowed	1.0 #9	5.3 #47	6.3 #19	3.3 #37	10.3 #118	13.7 #91

NEB scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	2.3 #112	2.3 #127	4.7 #127	7.0 #53	8.0 #47	15.0 #51
LT allowed	11.3 #126	10.0 #103	21.3 #127	3.5 #46	4.3 #38	7.8 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.