Louisiana Tech @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Fri, Sep 29, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UTEP · Conference game

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Louisiana Tech

2-3 · Power #116

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-4 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

LT -2

✓ LT W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 27–26 UTEP

✓ LT (53%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -2

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLT -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -2

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 2-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 2.5; 50.5 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	UTEP @ USM 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.25	26–13	W	U46.25
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	LT @ UTSA 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	26–27	L	U53.5
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	TROY @ USA 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	29–0	W	U54
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	38–7	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2
UTEP LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: LT away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT ––OOU	2-1	67%	2-3
UTEP UUOUO	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LTlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-1 67%
UTEPlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−2.5 →−8.7▼ 6.2#106

UTEP−4.4 →−11.7▼ 7.3#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#75

Offense

◀ LT better

#106

#68

Defense

◀ LT better

#105

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

◀ LT better

−1.3 #132

63 plays #102

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

67 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LT offense

	LT off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #83	28.2 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #58	6.23 #115	LT
PPA / play	+0.11 #73	+0.22 #120	LT
Success rate	41% #86	43% #93	Even

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	UTEP off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #132	25.7 #78	LT
Yards / play	5.21 #103	5.31 #62	LT
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.09 #73	Even
Success rate	40% #94	39% #60	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LT scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	2.0 #120	11.0 #40	13.0 #81	5.4 #79	9.2 #41	14.6 #57
UTEP allowed	6.2 #98	8.4 #86	14.6 #92	7.6 #106	6.8 #79	14.4 #103

UTEP scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.2 #101	4.8 #117	9.0 #120	2.8 #120	5.6 #86	8.4 #122
LT allowed	9.0 #121	9.4 #99	18.4 #117	4.2 #50	6.2 #70	10.4 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.