Utah @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Fri, Sep 29, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Oregon State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Utah

4-0 · Power #33

final

Final

Oregon State

3-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -4

✓ ORST W

Total

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 21–25 ORST

✓ ORST (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -4

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -4

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 4-point home favorite against UTAH, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 21–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 43, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.5; 46.7 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	42–24	W	O45
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75
Very close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Very close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	25–10	W	U43
Close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-1	45–20	W	O45
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–20	L	U39
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	PITT vs CLEM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–17	W	U47
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	45–17	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WPLW	2-1-1	67%	0-0-1	—
ORST WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH –UUU	0-3	0%	4-0
ORST –OUO	2-1	67%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 57% of games with totals 39–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 4	4-0 100%	2-1-1 67%	0-3 0%
ORSTlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+1.7 →+6.1▲ 4.4#33

ORST+11.2 →+8.9▼ 2.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UTAH

Longer bar = better

ORST

#106

Offense

ORST better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#46

+1.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

+0.8 #33

66 plays #76

Pace

Even

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	UTAH off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #99	17.8 #32	ORST
Yards / play	4.89 #118	5.15 #49	ORST
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	−0.06 #22	ORST
Success rate	39% #101	42% #80	ORST

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #19	9.5 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.04 #20	4.57 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #16	−0.17 #3	Even
Success rate	51% #18	28% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.3 #75	7.5 #86	12.8 #83	6.0 #65	3.5 #113	9.5 #107
ORST allowed	3.5 #45	5.0 #39	8.5 #40	1.8 #10	7.5 #91	9.3 #38

ORST scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.8 #39	13.5 #17	21.3 #18	6.0 #65	12.3 #6	18.3 #24
UTAH allowed	0.8 #5	4.3 #30	5.0 #4	0.8 #7	3.8 #33	4.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.