Oregon State @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at California · Conference game

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Oregon State

4-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

California

3-2 · Power #57

final

Closing spread

ORST -10

✓ ORST W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ORST 31–22 CAL

✓ ORST (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -10

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -10

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 10-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 52–40; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.3 against an average line of 9.5; 50.5 points a game (usually 55).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	31–21	P	U59
Very close	ND @ PITT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	45–3	W	O43.5
Very close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Very close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Very close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	42–7	W	U50
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	23–0	W	U55
Very close	UCLA @ ASU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	50–36	W	O67
Very close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
CAL WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST –OUOU	2-2	50%	4-1
CAL –UUOU	1-3	25%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORSTlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
CALlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+11.2 →+10.0▼ 1.2#22

CAL+15.6 →+3.1▼ 12.5#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ORST

Longer bar = better

CAL

#24

Offense

◀ ORST better

#83

#23

Defense

◀ ORST better

#76

+0.6 #34

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+1.0 #17

65 plays #93

Pace

CAL faster ▶

80 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #27	26.4 #78	ORST
Yards / play	6.80 #23	5.76 #88	ORST
PPA / play	+0.27 #22	+0.05 #51	ORST
Success rate	48% #25	43% #87	ORST

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	CAL off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #60	15.6 #15	ORST
Yards / play	5.39 #93	4.75 #21	ORST
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	−0.11 #6	ORST
Success rate	40% #98	39% #48	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.6 #38	10.8 #30	18.4 #34	6.2 #71	11.2 #7	17.4 #23
CAL allowed	9.6 #124	9.8 #102	19.4 #126	2.6 #16	4.4 #30	7.0 #16

CAL scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.0 #68	9.8 #49	15.8 #62	8.6 #30	6.6 #73	15.2 #46
ORST allowed	2.8 #23	4.0 #14	6.8 #15	1.4 #7	7.4 #89	8.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.