Colorado @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff102°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

3-2 · Power #72

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

1-4 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

COLO -3

Push

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 30–25 ASU

✓ COLO (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCOLO -3

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCOLO -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCOLO -3

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 3-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 27–24; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 58, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.6; 57.4 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	41–38	W	O54
Very close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	24–31	L	U59
Close	LOU @ GT 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	27–46	L	O63
Close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–24	L	U54
Close	TOL @ BALL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	22–12	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
ASU LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: COLO away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO –UOUO	2-2	50%	3-2
ASU UUUOU	1-4	20%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 45% of games with totals 54–62 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLOlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
ASUlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

COLO 4–11 ASU ASU leads · 15 games since 2006 · ASU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+3.1 →+3.6▲ 0.5#41

ASU+0.4 →−8.4▼ 8.8#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

COLO

Longer bar = better

ASU

#52

Offense

◀ COLO better

#126

#122

Defense

ASU better ▶

#79

+1.4 #7

Turnovers

◀ COLO better

−2.4 #136

76 plays #10

Pace

◀ COLO faster

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #40	28.6 #91	COLO
Yards / play	5.82 #69	5.24 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #40	+0.14 #90	COLO
Success rate	44% #58	42% #83	COLO

When ASU has the ball

Even matchup

	ASU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #127	36.2 #128	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #118	6.54 #125	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #127	+0.18 #108	Even
Success rate	36% #131	47% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	4.2 #102	7.4 #87	11.6 #104	7.4 #53	12.2 #3	19.6 #11
ASU allowed	6.2 #93	6.6 #54	12.8 #74	7.4 #96	8.4 #103	15.8 #107

ASU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.6 #74	5.6 #117	11.2 #111	2.8 #127	3.6 #121	6.4 #128
COLO allowed	8.2 #116	12.6 #126	20.8 #129	8.4 #109	5.6 #61	14.0 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.