Arizona State @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 10:45 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona State

1-5 · Power #101

final

Final

Washington

6-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -28

✓ ASU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 14–43 WASH

✓ WASH (98%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -28

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -28

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -28

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 28-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 15–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 59.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29.2 against an average line of 28.6; 59 points a game (usually 58.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5
Close	ALA vs MSST 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-29.5	41–0	W	U63.5
Close	BYU vs TXST 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-30	52–14	W	O61.75
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	CLEM vs BC 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-26.5	34–28	L	O56
Close	BYU vs WKU 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-30.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	CIN vs ECU 2020 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-27.5	55–17	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LLWWP	2-3-1	40%	1-0	2-2-1
WASH PWWLL	3-2-1	60%	2-1-1	3-2-1

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUOUU	1-5	17%	1-5
WASH UUOUO	2-3	40%	6-0

Stayed under: it needed 50 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 44% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASUlast 6	1-5 17%	2-3-1 40%	1-5 17%
WASHlast 6	6-0 100%	3-2-1 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+0.4 →−7.9▼ 8.3#105

WASH+9.9 →+19.3▲ 9.4#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ASU

Longer bar = better

WASH

#118

Offense

WASH better ▶

#75

Defense

WASH better ▶

#51

−2.0 #135

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+0.3 #45

69 plays #51

Pace

◀ ASU faster

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	ASU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #123	20.8 #42	WASH
Yards / play	4.98 #113	5.33 #52	WASH
PPA / play	+0.02 #113	+0.03 #37	WASH
Success rate	37% #124	42% #71	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	44.3 #4	28.3 #92	WASH
Yards / play	8.49 #1	5.04 #31	WASH
PPA / play	+0.48 #2	+0.15 #95	WASH
Success rate	59% #1	42% #80	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.8 #76	6.3 #104	12.2 #92	2.3 #128	4.2 #119	6.5 #127
WASH allowed	3.8 #38	5.3 #29	9.2 #26	4.8 #47	6.8 #79	11.7 #62

WASH scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	13.3 #3	15.5 #2	28.8 #1	8.0 #35	7.5 #47	15.5 #36
ASU allowed	6.3 #96	6.7 #54	13.0 #77	6.2 #81	9.2 #116	15.3 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.