Washington State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

4-2 · Power #46

final

Final

Oregon

5-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -19.5

✓ WSU W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 20–40 ORE

✓ ORE (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -19.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -19.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 19.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 38–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 60.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.9 against an average line of 19.9; 71.3 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU vs PSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-18.5	33–24	L	U60.5
Very close	OSU vs PUR 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	59–31	W	O65
Very close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Very close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5
Very close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	MIA vs GT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	20–23	L	U57
Close	USC vs CAL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-21	41–35	L	O61
Close	CIN vs UCF 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	56–21	W	O56
Close	OU vs BAY 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-23	27–14	L	U61
Close	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-1
ORE WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	5-0

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU UOO–U	3-2	60%	4-2
ORE UUUUO	2-4	33%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 48 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSUlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-2 60%
ORElast 6	5-1 83%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+5.5 →+3.4▼ 2.1#43

ORE+8.3 →+20.5▲ 12.2#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WSU

Longer bar = better

ORE

#46

Offense

ORE better ▶

#64

Defense

ORE better ▶

#23

−0.7 #118

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+1.0 #15

68 plays #65

Pace

ORE faster ▶

72 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	WSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #32	15.8 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.34 #39	4.47 #13	ORE
PPA / play	+0.10 #74	0.00 #28	ORE
Success rate	45% #39	39% #40	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #1	28.5 #93	ORE
Yards / play	7.76 #3	5.67 #77	ORE
PPA / play	+0.45 #3	+0.04 #42	ORE
Success rate	55% #4	39% #45	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	9.8 #14	11.5 #19	21.3 #8	6.7 #61	6.3 #75	13.0 #71
ORE allowed	5.2 #71	3.3 #7	8.5 #20	3.5 #25	3.8 #17	7.3 #13

ORE scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	13.7 #3	14.5 #3	28.2 #2	11.2 #5	9.2 #26	20.3 #6
WSU allowed	3.8 #39	6.5 #50	10.3 #44	5.5 #68	12.7 #133	18.2 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.