Arizona @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Washington State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

3-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Washington State

4-1 · Power #46

final

Closing spread

WSU -7.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 26–33 WSU

✗ WSU (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSU -7.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWSU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 62% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSU -7.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 44–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 7.1; 56.6 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	WVU vs TTU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	20–23	L	U55.25
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Very close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8	38–6	W	U58
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	55–28	W	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-1	3-0
WSU WWLWL	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUUU–	0-5	0%	3-3
WSU OUOO–	3-1	75%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 49% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZlast 6	3-3 50%	5-1 83%	0-5 0%
WSUlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+1.3 →+3.4▲ 2.1#42

WSU+5.5 →+7.8▲ 2.3#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

WSU

#36

Offense

Even

#32

#70

Defense

WSU better ▶

#48

−0.8 #125

Turnovers

WSU better ▶

−0.2 #91

67 plays #67

Pace

WSU faster ▶

71 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #69	25.4 #70	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #30	5.50 #68	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.21 #39	−0.03 #23	Even
Success rate	54% #7	37% #30	ARIZ

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #12	23.0 #54	WSU
Yards / play	6.66 #25	5.57 #72	WSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	+0.10 #74	Even
Success rate	46% #34	42% #81	WSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	2.8 #121	8.7 #66	11.5 #106	9.2 #20	7.0 #64	16.2 #30
WSU allowed	2.6 #20	5.8 #41	8.4 #22	4.6 #49	12.4 #133	17.0 #118

WSU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	10.6 #15	13.8 #10	24.4 #6	8.0 #36	7.6 #50	15.6 #39
ARIZ allowed	5.2 #68	5.7 #35	10.8 #52	4.7 #51	3.8 #17	8.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.