Oregon State @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

6-1 · Power #20

final

Final

Arizona

4-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -3

✓ ARIZ W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 30–28 ARIZ

✗ ORST (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -3

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 44% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -3

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 3-point road favorite at ARIZ, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 3; 62.3 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ ORST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–42	L	O57.75
Very close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	40–43	L	O55
Very close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-4	35–24	W	U60
Close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58
Close	TEX @ KSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	34–27	W	O54.5
Close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3	10–24	L	U59
Close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Close	NCST @ BC 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	33–7	W	U51
Close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	51–33	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LLWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	5-2
ARIZ WLWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; ARIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST UOU–O	3-2	60%	6-1
ARIZ UUU–U	0-6	0%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORSTlast 7	6-1 86%	5-2 71%	3-2 60%
ARIZlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	0-6 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+11.2 →+11.5▲ 0.3#17

ARIZ+1.3 →+7.0▲ 5.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ORST

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#11

Offense

◀ ORST better

#24

#38

Defense

◀ ORST better

#54

+0.9 #19

Turnovers

◀ ORST better

−0.3 #96

64 plays #98

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

69 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #13	20.6 #36	ORST
Yards / play	6.94 #11	5.40 #57	ORST
PPA / play	+0.32 #8	+0.06 #52	ORST
Success rate	50% #10	42% #70	ORST

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #44	20.3 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.55 #23	5.15 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #25	−0.05 #11	Even
Success rate	53% #5	42% #69	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	8.3 #22	11.1 #20	19.4 #17	8.3 #28	10.4 #13	18.7 #12
ARIZ allowed	5.3 #72	4.9 #21	10.1 #38	4.0 #27	3.3 #10	7.3 #12

ARIZ scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	3.9 #110	8.9 #58	12.7 #85	9.3 #13	8.0 #38	17.3 #20
ORST allowed	2.0 #4	6.7 #58	8.7 #20	4.1 #34	7.4 #91	11.6 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.