Washington State @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F13 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

4-3 · Power #46

final

Final

Arizona State

1-6 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSU -4.5

✓ ASU W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 26–20 ASU

✗ WSU (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSU -4.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWSU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 51% (70 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSU -4.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 4.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 38–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 49, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.7; 50.4 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	BOIS @ SDSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	34–31	L	O46.5
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Very close	HOU @ NAVY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-3	38–20	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU LWLLW	4-3	57%	2-1	1-2
ASU LWWPW	3-3-1	50%	1-3-1	3-2-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OO–UO	4-2	67%	4-3
ASU UOUUU	1-6	14%	1-6

Went over in Q3. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSUlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	4-2 67%
ASUlast 7	1-6 14%	3-3-1 50%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+5.5 →+3.7▼ 1.8#44

ASU+0.4 →−5.4▼ 5.8#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WSU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#47

Offense

◀ WSU better

#121

#87

Defense

ASU better ▶

#70

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

◀ WSU better

−1.3 #132

68 plays #57

Pace

ASU faster ▶

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #35	26.4 #78	WSU
Yards / play	6.43 #31	5.06 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	+0.13 #88	Even
Success rate	44% #48	43% #81	WSU

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: WSU defense

	ASU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #128	29.9 #103	WSU
Yards / play	4.88 #118	6.11 #111	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	+0.10 #71	WSU
Success rate	37% #118	41% #63	WSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	8.9 #17	11.3 #19	20.1 #13	6.1 #65	6.6 #73	12.7 #75
ASU allowed	5.4 #75	6.1 #40	11.6 #56	5.3 #61	9.6 #119	14.9 #100

ASU scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.0 #88	6.4 #100	11.4 #99	2.0 #131	3.6 #127	5.6 #132
WSU allowed	3.7 #34	7.6 #76	11.3 #52	6.7 #94	11.9 #132	18.6 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.