Oregon @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F13 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

6-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Utah

6-1 · Power #33

final

Closing spread

ORE -6.5

✓ ORE W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 26–20 UTAH

✓ ORE (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -6.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 59% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -6.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 6.5-point road favorite at UTAH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 35–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 6.3; 52.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	26–16	W	U48
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	WISC @ MICH 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	49–11	W	O51.5
Close	WISC @ NW 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	7–17	L	U43.5
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WWWWL	6-1	86%	3-0	5-1
UTAH LWLWW	4-2-1	67%	3-1	1-1

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; UTAH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE UUUOO	3-4	43%	6-1
UTAH UUUOO	2-4	33%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 56% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORElast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	3-4 43%
UTAHlast 7	6-1 86%	4-2-1 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+8.3 →+19.2▲ 10.9#4

UTAH+1.7 →+8.7▲ 7.0#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ORE

Longer bar = better

UTAH

Offense

◀ ORE better

#96

#30

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#16

+0.9 #18

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #11

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ ORE faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	47.0 #2	15.0 #11	Even
Yards / play	7.97 #3	5.09 #34	ORE
PPA / play	+0.46 #2	−0.06 #10	Even
Success rate	55% #4	33% #7	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	UTAH off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #99	17.0 #16	ORE
Yards / play	5.12 #104	4.86 #22	ORE
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.03 #39	ORE
Success rate	41% #83	39% #43	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	12.1 #5	14.4 #3	26.6 #1	11.6 #3	8.9 #27	20.4 #4
UTAH allowed	4.4 #53	2.4 #3	6.9 #7	2.9 #12	5.3 #45	8.1 #18

UTAH scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.0 #88	6.3 #105	11.3 #102	6.9 #54	5.3 #103	12.1 #83
ORE allowed	4.9 #63	4.3 #15	9.1 #23	3.4 #22	4.4 #27	7.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.