Utah @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Utah

5-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

USC

6-1 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

USC -7

✓ UTAH W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 23–30 USC

✗ USC (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -7

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSC -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 66%, covered 57% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSC -7

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 7-point home favorite against UTAH, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 34–32 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 6.6; 53 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs WVU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–13	L	U55
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	24–21	L	U47
Close	UNC vs MINN 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7	31–13	W	U51.5
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	LSU vs SC 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	52–24	W	O54.5
Close	ISU vs WVU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	42–6	W	P48
Close	UNC vs NCST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–30	L	O56
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-5.75	34–43	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH PLWLW	3-2-1	60%	0-1-1	0-1
USC WLLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UUUUO	1-4	20%	5-1
USC UOO–O	4-1	80%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 115 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	5-1 83%	3-2-1 60%	1-4 20%
USClast 7	6-1 86%	2-5 29%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+1.7 →+6.8▲ 5.1#30

USC+9.1 →+12.4▲ 3.3#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UTAH

Longer bar = better

USC

#109

Offense

USC better ▶

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#86

+1.2 #8

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−0.1 #78

67 plays #72

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	UTAH off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #109	30.0 #103	Even
Yards / play	4.81 #122	5.66 #80	USC
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	+0.18 #103	Even
Success rate	39% #98	41% #59	USC

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	47.3 #2	12.2 #4	Even
Yards / play	7.75 #4	4.79 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #5	−0.11 #3	Even
Success rate	49% #13	31% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	3.5 #112	7.3 #86	10.8 #105	5.7 #80	5.2 #102	10.8 #101
USC allowed	4.4 #50	8.7 #92	13.1 #80	5.4 #62	9.6 #117	15.0 #103

USC scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	11.4 #7	14.3 #5	25.7 #4	8.9 #20	10.6 #12	19.4 #6
UTAH allowed	2.8 #17	2.8 #4	5.7 #6	2.8 #13	3.7 #12	6.5 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.