UCLA @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

4-2 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

2-4 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

UCLA -17

✓ UCLA W

Total

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 35–18 STAN

✓ UCLA (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -17

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -17

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 17-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 42–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 52, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.5 against an average line of 16.3; 58.7 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Very close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	23–3	W	U49
Very close	UL @ TXST 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	44–34	L	O56.75
Very close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	IOWA @ ILL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	35–21	P	O52.5
Very close	NCST @ SYR 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	36–29	L	O50.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	WYO @ UNLV 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-16.5	45–14	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WWLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	3-1
STAN LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: UCLA away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UOU–O	2-2	50%	4-2
STAN UUUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 58% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLAlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%
STANlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.8 →+8.4▲ 5.6#23

STAN+2.6 →−7.8▼ 10.4#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UCLA

Longer bar = better

STAN

#69

Offense

Even

#82

#12

Defense

◀ UCLA better

#132

+0.2 #57

Turnovers

◀ UCLA better

−0.3 #96

72 plays #24

Pace

Even

71 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #62	36.0 #128	UCLA
Yards / play	6.35 #36	6.69 #131	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.34 #134	UCLA
Success rate	39% #101	52% #134	UCLA

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	STAN off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #97	16.2 #13	UCLA
Yards / play	5.27 #98	4.28 #8	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	−0.11 #5	UCLA
Success rate	42% #70	36% #20	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	8.2 #30	9.5 #46	17.7 #33	5.2 #89	6.7 #67	11.8 #88
STAN allowed	6.3 #96	14.7 #133	21.0 #131	5.2 #58	8.7 #109	13.8 #93

STAN scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	3.3 #115	5.7 #112	9.0 #121	5.8 #77	7.2 #56	13.0 #69
UCLA allowed	5.0 #68	5.5 #31	10.5 #42	4.5 #44	1.2 #2	5.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.