Toledo @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F15 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

5-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

1-5 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

TOL -17.5

✓ BALL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 33–16 BALL

✓ TOL (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -17.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -17.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 17.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TOL won 13–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.2 against an average line of 16.8; 47.4 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ TEM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-17	23–3	W	U49
Very close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Very close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Close	USU @ UNM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-17	35–10	W	U48
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	MRSH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	31–34	L	O50
Close	BAY @ KU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-17	45–7	W	O48.5
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	NCST @ SYR 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	36–29	L	O50.5
Close	WYO @ UNLV 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	45–14	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-4
BALL PWLLL	1-4-1	20%	1-1	0-4-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OUOO–	3-1	75%	5-1
BALL UOUO–	3-2	60%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 43 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 56% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOLlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	3-1 75%
BALLlast 6	1-5 17%	1-4-1 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+0.7 →+1.1▲ 0.4#57

BALL−7.6 →−14.7▼ 7.1#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TOL

Longer bar = better

BALL

#17

Offense

◀ TOL better

#120

#55

Defense

◀ TOL better

#106

0.0 #71

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−1.0 #130

68 plays #61

Pace

◀ TOL faster

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #9	33.7 #118	TOL
Yards / play	6.99 #15	5.86 #88	TOL
PPA / play	+0.28 #21	+0.22 #121	TOL
Success rate	49% #21	44% #97	TOL

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BALL off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #131	23.0 #52	TOL
Yards / play	4.74 #124	5.39 #59	TOL
PPA / play	+0.01 #118	+0.04 #45	TOL
Success rate	38% #108	40% #62	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	9.3 #19	9.7 #47	19.0 #24	12.8 #3	9.0 #26	21.8 #3
BALL allowed	4.5 #56	15.8 #133	20.3 #129	9.8 #128	3.5 #15	13.3 #84

BALL scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.2 #131	4.0 #127	6.2 #133	3.5 #119	6.8 #73	10.3 #104
TOL allowed	4.7 #63	7.3 #70	12.0 #66	5.5 #67	5.5 #53	11.0 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.