Miami (OH) @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

3-1 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

1-3 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

M-OH -14

✓ M-OH W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 33–19 KENT

✓ M-OH (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -14

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -14

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 14-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 23–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 50, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 14.3; 54.3 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA @ USU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	35–7	W	U51.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Very close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Very close	WYO @ UNLV 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-16.5	45–14	W	O52
Very close	BC @ SYR 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	16–13	L	U54
Very close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	BUFF @ ODU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-13	35–34	L	O50.5
Very close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	NCST @ SYR 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-17	36–29	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LWWW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-0
KENT LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH –OOO	3-0	100%	3-1
KENT –UOO	2-1	67%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 46–54 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OHlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	3-0 100%
KENTlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−3.0▲ 8.1#78

KENT−15.5 →−18.2▼ 2.7#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

M-OH

Longer bar = better

KENT

#31

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#114

#105

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#129

0.0 #71

Turnovers

KENT better ▶

+0.5 #37

55 plays #131

Pace

Even

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #41	36.8 #127	M-OH
Yards / play	7.60 #8	6.40 #123	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.29 #25	+0.35 #132	M-OH
Success rate	44% #48	51% #133	M-OH

When KENT has the ball

Even matchup

	KENT off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #131	27.5 #93	M-OH
Yards / play	4.68 #127	6.07 #110	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #103	+0.19 #109	Even
Success rate	40% #94	45% #108	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	11.3 #11	8.5 #72	19.8 #27	7.8 #42	5.0 #96	12.8 #71
KENT allowed	10.8 #131	8.8 #92	19.5 #122	8.8 #115	8.5 #102	17.3 #119

KENT scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	6.8 #57	3.3 #125	10.0 #113	5.0 #88	0.0 #133	5.0 #129
M-OH allowed	6.8 #104	5.5 #51	12.3 #75	8.0 #109	7.3 #86	15.3 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.