Bowling Green @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F15 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Bowling Green

2-3 · Power #80

final

Final

Miami (OH)

4-1 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -11.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

BGSU 16–27 M-OH

✓ M-OH (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -11.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -11.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as an 11.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: M-OH won 27–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 11.5; 53.3 points a game (usually 56.1).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Very close	UAB vs WKU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	37–14	W	O44
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	39–21	W	O49.75
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	24–23	L	U54.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	24–7	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	3-1
M-OH LWWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU –OUUO	2-2	50%	2-3
M-OH –OOOU	3-1	75%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSUlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	2-2 50%
M-OHlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−8.8▼ 5.8#107

M-OH−11.1 →−3.2▲ 7.9#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BGSU

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#108

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#42

#98

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#70

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

0.0 #67

63 plays #106

Pace

◀ BGSU faster

55 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BGSU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #104	22.6 #48	M-OH
Yards / play	5.39 #95	5.52 #70	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.01 #118	+0.11 #82	M-OH
Success rate	38% #115	42% #80	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #53	29.0 #96	M-OH
Yards / play	7.09 #14	6.19 #113	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.24 #33	+0.11 #80	M-OH
Success rate	42% #67	44% #101	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	2.8 #122	8.8 #64	11.6 #104	8.2 #39	2.8 #127	11.0 #102
M-OH allowed	6.0 #87	4.4 #25	10.4 #50	6.4 #85	5.8 #62	12.2 #67

M-OH scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	11.0 #12	7.4 #90	18.4 #36	8.2 #39	4.0 #118	12.2 #85
BGSU allowed	11.0 #129	8.0 #83	19.0 #119	7.4 #96	2.6 #5	10.0 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.