Toledo @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

4-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

1-5 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

TOL -19.5

✓ MASS W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

TOL 38–20 MASS

✓ TOL (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -19.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -19.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 19.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 41–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.5 against an average line of 20.2; 62.9 points a game (usually 55.6).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ UNT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-21	35–26	L	P61
Very close	UCF @ USF 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-20	46–39	L	O67.5
Very close	APP @ TXST 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-21.5	38–17	L	U58.5
Very close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Very close	WKU @ RICE 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	42–21	W	O61.5
Very close	LOU @ DUKE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-20	62–22	W	O60.5
Very close	BYU @ GASO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20	34–17	L	U57.25
Very close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	APP @ ARST 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	48–14	W	U68
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-21	41–3	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-3
MASS LLWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-2

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL –OUOO	3-1	75%	4-1
MASS OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOLlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	3-1 75%
MASSlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+0.7 →+0.9▲ 0.2#56

MASS−11.8 →−15.8▼ 4.0#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TOL

Longer bar = better

MASS

#27

Offense

◀ TOL better

#68

#48

Defense

◀ TOL better

#131

0.0 #80

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−0.3 #94

69 plays #47

Pace

◀ TOL faster

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #11	39.2 #133	TOL
Yards / play	6.76 #29	7.34 #134	TOL
PPA / play	+0.22 #39	+0.28 #127	TOL
Success rate	48% #30	48% #128	TOL

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #86	22.8 #53	TOL
Yards / play	6.18 #48	5.10 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #76	−0.02 #34	TOL
Success rate	43% #62	41% #65	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	9.2 #27	10.2 #45	19.4 #26	11.2 #6	10.2 #15	21.4 #5
MASS allowed	10.8 #128	12.2 #123	23.0 #132	6.3 #86	8.8 #113	15.2 #107

MASS scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	2.3 #123	6.2 #107	8.5 #122	6.2 #80	11.3 #7	17.5 #29
TOL allowed	4.2 #53	6.0 #46	10.2 #45	6.0 #77	6.6 #72	12.6 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.