UConn @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Rice

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

UConn

0-5 · Power #125

▲ winner

Final

Rice

3-2 · Power #90

final

Closing spread

RICE -10.5

✓ CONN W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

CONN 19–30 RICE

✗ RICE (77%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRICE -10.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRICE -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRICE -10.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RICE as a 10.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 10.8; 57.3 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	45–38	L	O57.5
Very close	UAB vs WKU 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	37–14	W	O44
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	TROY vs MTSU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	17–20	L	U60.5
Very close	MEM vs NAVY 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-11	35–17	W	U55.5
Very close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	44–20	W	O59
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	58–21	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2
RICE WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-1

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; RICE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN –UUOO	2-2	50%	0-5
RICE UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONNlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	2-2 50%
RICElast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−5.0 →−12.1▼ 7.1#123

RICE−10.1 →−5.3▲ 4.8#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CONN

Longer bar = better

RICE

#124

Offense

RICE better ▶

#43

#107

Defense

RICE better ▶

#80

−0.8 #115

Turnovers

RICE better ▶

−0.2 #88

68 plays #59

Pace

◀ CONN faster

63 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	CONN off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #128	28.8 #93	RICE
Yards / play	4.79 #121	5.78 #90	RICE
PPA / play	−0.04 #125	+0.05 #54	RICE
Success rate	37% #122	42% #84	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: RICE offense

	RICE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #47	31.6 #112	RICE
Yards / play	5.99 #57	5.83 #91	RICE
PPA / play	+0.28 #23	+0.18 #109	RICE
Success rate	45% #44	46% #115	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	3.4 #114	2.0 #132	5.4 #133	2.8 #127	8.8 #29	11.6 #92
RICE allowed	2.6 #20	7.8 #77	10.4 #51	7.0 #90	8.8 #112	15.8 #106

RICE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	12.4 #6	7.0 #100	19.4 #22	4.8 #95	5.8 #88	10.6 #104
CONN allowed	5.6 #82	12.2 #125	17.8 #114	10.4 #130	3.4 #15	13.8 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.