South Florida @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff58°F12 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Florida

3-4 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

UConn

1-5 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

CONN -1

✓ USF W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 27–28 CONN

✗ CONN (53%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCONN -1

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCONN -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCONN -1

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 1-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USF won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 57, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 2.4; 52.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Very close	NAVY vs USF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	30–44	L	O54.5
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-3	56–35	W	O57
Close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	38–19	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	3-1
CONN LLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	0-1

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-4
CONN UUOO–	2-2	50%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 51% of games with totals 53–61 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USFlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-2 67%
CONNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.1 →−9.5▼ 6.4#112

CONN−5.0 →−10.7▼ 5.7#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USF

Longer bar = better

CONN

#95

Offense

◀ USF better

#115

#111

Defense

Even

#111

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

0.0 #64

79 plays #2

Pace

◀ USF faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #70	31.5 #111	USF
Yards / play	5.51 #81	5.98 #98	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #108	+0.18 #107	Even
Success rate	38% #119	47% #127	Even

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #117	36.1 #127	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #112	6.45 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	+0.23 #123	Even
Success rate	38% #114	42% #68	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USF scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	7.9 #35	7.6 #80	15.4 #61	6.0 #72	7.1 #58	13.1 #70
CONN allowed	7.0 #105	10.2 #112	17.2 #112	9.8 #126	4.5 #32	14.3 #93

CONN scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	2.8 #121	5.0 #120	7.8 #126	3.7 #121	9.0 #28	12.7 #79
USF allowed	9.0 #122	8.7 #91	17.7 #116	9.9 #127	8.6 #105	18.4 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.