UConn @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Boston College

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

UConn

1-6 · Power #125

final

Final

Boston College

4-3 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -14.5

✓ CONN W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 18–32 BC

✓ BC (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBC -14.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBC -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 48% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBC -14.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 14.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 21–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 49, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 14.2; 57.8 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	44–56	L	O51.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	TEM vs USF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	39–37	L	O52.75
Very close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	27–22	L	P49
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-1	3-2
BC WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-3	0-3

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UOO–U	2-3	40%	1-6
BC OOP–O	5-0-1	100%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 45–53 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONNlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	2-3 40%
BClast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	5-0-1 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−5.0 →−11.3▼ 6.3#119

BC−0.4 →−1.9▼ 1.5#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CONN

Longer bar = better

#116

Offense

BC better ▶

#69

#103

Defense

Even

#114

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.1 #59

65 plays #91

Pace

BC faster ▶

71 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #113	30.4 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #108	6.30 #123	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	+0.20 #115	Even
Success rate	38% #120	45% #110	Even

When BC has the ball

Advantage: BC offense

	BC off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #66	30.4 #106	BC
Yards / play	5.89 #58	5.85 #94	BC
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	+0.15 #94	BC
Success rate	39% #105	45% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	2.4 #129	6.3 #106	8.7 #122	3.1 #125	8.7 #29	11.9 #86
BC allowed	4.4 #52	11.9 #124	16.3 #109	9.9 #129	3.4 #8	13.3 #80

BC scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.3 #101	7.9 #77	12.1 #93	6.3 #68	10.3 #15	16.6 #26
CONN allowed	7.0 #105	9.1 #97	16.1 #108	8.4 #117	5.9 #59	14.3 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.