Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff53°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

2-5 · Power #77

final

Final

Notre Dame

6-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -21

✓ ND W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 13–34 ND

✓ ND (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -21

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -21

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -21

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 21-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 58–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.5 against an average line of 21.2; 52.3 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	FSU vs GT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	41–16	W	O48
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-22	49–27	P	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-3	1-2
ND LPWLW	5-2-1	71%	2-1-1	5-2

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UOOOU	5-2	71%	2-5
ND OUU–O	4-2	67%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	5-2 71%
NDlast 8	6-2 75%	5-2-1 71%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PITT 21–52 ND (1 tied) ND leads · 74 games since 1909 · ND has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+3.7 →−1.0▼ 4.7#69

ND+9.1 →+15.9▲ 6.8#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

PITT

Longer bar = better

#107

Offense

ND better ▶

#19

#36

Defense

ND better ▶

#19

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+0.8 #21

62 plays #112

Pace

Even

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	PITT off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #91	16.4 #14	ND
Yards / play	5.14 #102	4.38 #11	ND
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.01 #29	ND
Success rate	38% #114	36% #20	ND

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #17	24.6 #64	ND
Yards / play	6.80 #16	4.90 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #12	−0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	47% #31	37% #30	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	6.4 #56	5.9 #110	12.3 #92	6.9 #54	5.4 #100	12.3 #81
ND allowed	2.5 #13	2.5 #4	5.0 #3	5.5 #63	5.9 #59	11.4 #55

ND scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.5 #53	11.3 #24	17.8 #30	7.6 #42	10.5 #12	18.1 #12
PITT allowed	4.4 #53	10.4 #113	14.9 #97	6.3 #83	3.4 #9	9.7 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.