Florida State @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

8-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

2-6 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

FSU -20.5

✓ PITT W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 35–14 PITT

✓ FSU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -20.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -20.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 20.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 24–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 20.5; 51.4 points a game (usually 56.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	41–16	W	O53
Very close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Very close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Very close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Very close	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Close	UGA @ SC 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-22	45–16	W	O50
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	38–29	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WLWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	5-2
PITT LLWLL	2-6	25%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU U–UOO	4-2	67%	8-0
PITT OOOUO	6-2	75%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 57% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSUlast 8	8-0 100%	6-2 75%	4-2 67%
PITTlast 8	2-6 25%	2-6 25%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+6.4 →+18.2▲ 11.8#6

PITT+3.7 →−2.5▼ 6.2#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FSU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#19

Offense

◀ FSU better

#116

#32

Defense

◀ FSU better

#54

+0.6 #27

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

−0.3 #91

65 plays #92

Pace

◀ FSU faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #5	28.8 #96	FSU
Yards / play	7.00 #8	5.32 #51	FSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #17	0.00 #28	Even
Success rate	45% #46	39% #39	Even

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	PITT off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #104	18.3 #20	FSU
Yards / play	5.13 #103	5.01 #28	FSU
PPA / play	−0.06 #133	+0.05 #46	FSU
Success rate	37% #124	38% #32	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	8.8 #17	12.0 #14	20.8 #13	9.0 #16	10.9 #7	19.9 #5
PITT allowed	4.8 #53	10.4 #115	15.1 #101	8.9 #122	4.8 #32	13.6 #86

PITT scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	5.6 #76	5.1 #120	10.8 #108	6.0 #73	5.6 #97	11.6 #93
FSU allowed	3.4 #26	7.5 #76	10.9 #45	4.5 #40	2.9 #3	7.4 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.