Pittsburgh vs Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F5 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

2-7 · Power #77

final

Final

Syracuse

4-5 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -3.5

✓ SYR W

Total

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 24–21 SYR

✗ PITT (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -3.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePITT -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -3.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against SYR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 28–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 38, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 3; 35.8 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	O32
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Loose	MSST vs TLSA 2020 · Postseason · loose	-1	28–26	W	O45.5
Loose	IOWA vs UK 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-3	21–0	W	U31.5
Loose	IOWA vs NU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & situation	-5	10–7	L	U31
Loose	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-3	30–27	P	O43
Loose	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Loose	UK vs IOWA 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Loose	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-5	24–17	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PITT LWLLW	3-6	33%	—	1-3
SYR LLLLL	3-5-1	38%	—	0-5

Venue/role: PITT neutral, as favorite; SYR neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOUOU	6-3	67%	2-7
SYR U–UOU	2-6	25%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 28 earlier overs in games with totals 34–42, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 9	2-7 22%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
SYRlast 9	4-5 44%	3-5-1 38%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+3.7 →−2.0▼ 5.7#76

SYR+6.3 →−1.9▼ 8.2#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

PITT

Longer bar = better

SYR

#118

Offense

SYR better ▶

#87

#56

Defense

Even

#49

−0.4 #108

Turnovers

SYR better ▶

−0.2 #89

61 plays #125

Pace

SYR faster ▶

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	PITT off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #114	23.3 #50	SYR
Yards / play	5.17 #102	5.13 #37	SYR
PPA / play	−0.06 #133	+0.07 #50	SYR
Success rate	37% #121	41% #58	SYR

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	SYR off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #86	28.2 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #78	5.50 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	+0.01 #28	PITT
Success rate	39% #100	39% #42	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	5.0 #87	5.3 #119	10.3 #110	5.3 #87	5.0 #110	10.3 #106
SYR allowed	6.8 #106	7.6 #80	14.3 #92	3.6 #20	5.4 #48	9.0 #21

SYR scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.8 #47	7.2 #80	14.0 #70	6.4 #61	4.1 #126	10.6 #104
PITT allowed	4.2 #44	10.3 #115	14.6 #96	9.4 #125	4.2 #16	13.7 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.