Virginia Tech @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

4-5 · Power #41

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

6-3 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

VT -2.5

✓ VT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 24–23 BC

✓ VT (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseVT -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 42% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseVT -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 2.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 48–22; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 2.4; 48.9 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	3–17	L	U51
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	33–23	W	O47.5
Very close	UTAH @ COLO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	38–21	W	O49
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	21–28	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WWWWL	5-4	56%	1-3	3-0
BC LWWLW	4-5	44%	1-4	3-1

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT O–UOU	4-4	50%	4-5
BC P–OUU	5-2-1	71%	6-3

Went over in Q3. Of 119 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	4-4 50%
BClast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	5-2-1 71%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

VT 23–11 BC VT leads · 34 games since 1993 · VT has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+3.6 →+0.9▼ 2.7#57

BC−0.4 →+0.3▲ 0.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

#93

Offense

BC better ▶

#69

#52

Defense

◀ VT better

#88

0.0 #71

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #59

67 plays #65

Pace

BC faster ▶

75 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #95	26.3 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.26 #92	6.11 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #99	+0.14 #88	Even
Success rate	41% #85	43% #77	Even

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #74	24.1 #57	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #81	5.39 #57	VT
PPA / play	+0.17 #54	+0.09 #66	Even
Success rate	42% #66	37% #26	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VT scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	3.2 #117	10.9 #21	14.1 #68	5.6 #82	3.9 #128	9.4 #114
BC allowed	5.0 #60	9.2 #99	14.2 #89	7.7 #114	3.8 #14	11.4 #55

BC scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.4 #97	7.7 #72	12.1 #90	5.7 #78	8.8 #26	14.4 #46
VT allowed	5.6 #78	7.9 #87	13.4 #77	6.4 #86	4.2 #18	10.7 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.