NC State @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

NC State

6-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

4-5 · Power #81

final

Closing spread

NCSU -1.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 24–22 WAKE

✓ NCSU (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNCSU -1.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNCSU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNCSU -1.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 26–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 43, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 2.6; 49.2 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Very close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	7–21	L	U45
Very close	RUTG @ ILL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–14	W	U41.5
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.25	42–16	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WWLWW	4-5	44%	0-3	1-3
WAKE WLWLW	4-5	44%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: NCSU away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU U–UUU	1-6	14%	6-3
WAKE –UUOO	4-4	50%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 52% of games with totals 39–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSUlast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	1-6 14%
WAKElast 9	4-5 44%	4-5 44%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.0 →+2.2▼ 2.8#50

WAKE+1.2 →−2.2▼ 3.4#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NCSU

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#106

Offense

Even

#106

#32

Defense

◀ NCSU better

#61

+0.6 #27

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

−0.6 #115

64 plays #95

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	NCSU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #84	24.4 #63	WAKE
Yards / play	4.94 #116	5.69 #76	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.09 #62	WAKE
Success rate	39% #111	39% #41	WAKE

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: NCSU defense

	WAKE off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #104	20.9 #34	NCSU
Yards / play	4.99 #114	5.18 #40	NCSU
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	−0.01 #20	NCSU
Success rate	41% #83	38% #34	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.8 #70	7.1 #84	12.9 #79	7.3 #40	4.4 #121	11.8 #91
WAKE allowed	2.7 #13	11.8 #130	14.4 #94	3.0 #12	7.0 #82	10.0 #35

WAKE scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	2.9 #122	7.3 #77	10.2 #111	5.2 #90	6.7 #74	11.9 #88
NCSU allowed	3.8 #29	5.7 #28	9.4 #27	6.0 #73	5.4 #49	11.4 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.