UConn @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at James Madison

Weather at kickoff57°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UConn

1-8 · Power #125

final

Final

James Madison

9-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -25.5

✓ JMU W

Total

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 11–37 JMU

✓ JMU (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -25.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -25.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -25.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 25.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 44–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 24.9; 49 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Very close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24	34–7	W	U51
Very close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Very close	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24	28–16	L	U44.5
Very close	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Very close	BOIS vs CSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-25	49–10	W	O42.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	UAB vs RICE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-23.75	24–30	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WWLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	4-3
JMU WWWLW	6-3	67%	2-2	5-3

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN O–UUO	3-4	43%	1-8
JMU OUUOO	5-4	56%	9-0

Went over in Q4. Of 125 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONNlast 9	1-8 11%	4-5 44%	3-4 43%
JMUlast 9	9-0 100%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−5.0 →−13.3▼ 8.3#122

JMU+5.1 →+7.0▲ 1.9#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CONN

Longer bar = better

JMU

#121

Offense

JMU better ▶

#40

#121

Defense

JMU better ▶

#15

−0.4 #104

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+0.3 #45

63 plays #110

Pace

JMU faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	CONN off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #127	19.6 #26	JMU
Yards / play	4.92 #117	4.77 #18	JMU
PPA / play	−0.01 #121	−0.04 #13	JMU
Success rate	38% #120	32% #2	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #29	32.6 #119	JMU
Yards / play	6.24 #39	6.20 #119	JMU
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.20 #116	JMU
Success rate	45% #35	48% #130	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	3.0 #119	4.9 #124	7.9 #128	2.4 #128	7.6 #46	10.0 #113
JMU allowed	1.9 #4	6.0 #35	7.9 #10	6.8 #94	4.9 #33	11.7 #58

JMU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	9.1 #15	8.7 #54	17.8 #27	8.7 #20	6.8 #70	15.4 #35
CONN allowed	7.8 #113	10.2 #113	18.0 #119	9.7 #128	4.9 #33	14.6 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.