Old Dominion @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Liberty

Weather at kickoff60°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

4-5 · Power #97

final

Final

Liberty

9-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -14

✓ LIB W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 22–37 LIB

✓ LIB (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -14

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 90%, covered 47% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -14

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 14-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.3 against an average line of 14.5; 70.3 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Very close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Very close	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Very close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Close	UNC vs NCST 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-14.75	48–21	W	O61.5
Close	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Close	WKU vs FAU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.25	52–17	W	O64
Close	LIB vs USM 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	56–35	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WWWWL	6-2	75%	3-1	6-1
LIB LWLWW	6-3	67%	2-3	6-3

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU O–UOO	5-2	71%	4-5
LIB –UOOO	4-3	57%	9-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 41% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODUlast 9	4-5 44%	6-2 75%	5-2 71%
LIBlast 9	9-0 100%	6-3 67%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−5.2 →−6.9▼ 1.7#102

LIB+3.0 →+5.9▲ 2.9#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ODU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#90

Offense

LIB better ▶

#64

Defense

Even

#52

−0.3 #99

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+1.0 #9

63 plays #109

Pace

LIB faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	ODU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #87	21.9 #41	LIB
Yards / play	5.77 #67	5.54 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.05 #43	LIB
Success rate	40% #97	41% #57	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #12	26.2 #74	LIB
Yards / play	7.11 #6	5.24 #44	LIB
PPA / play	+0.32 #8	+0.05 #39	LIB
Success rate	51% #7	44% #97	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.7 #126	9.1 #45	11.8 #95	8.4 #22	4.2 #124	12.7 #77
LIB allowed	6.0 #87	6.4 #47	12.4 #62	6.0 #72	3.4 #9	9.4 #25

LIB scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	8.9 #15	12.1 #13	21.0 #10	10.0 #8	8.1 #36	18.1 #11
ODU allowed	4.3 #46	6.1 #39	10.4 #37	9.3 #124	6.4 #65	15.8 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.