Florida International @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

4-5 · Power #131

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

2-7 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

MTSU -10.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 19–30 MTSU

✓ MTSU (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -10.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMTSU -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 46% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -10.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 10.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 40–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 10.9; 46.8 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	14–21	L	U49
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-12.5	27–22	L	P49
Very close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Very close	MTSU vs USM 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	35–10	W	U47.25
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Close	ILL vs CLT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-10	24–14	P	U54
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Close	GASO vs TXST 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-12	40–38	L	O49.5
Close	MTSU vs FIU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	50–10	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU LLLWL	4-5	44%	3-1	4-3
MTSU LLWWL	3-6	33%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU U–UOO	3-4	43%	4-5
MTSU UOOOU	4-4	50%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 59% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIUlast 9	4-5 44%	4-5 44%	3-4 43%
MTSUlast 9	2-7 22%	3-6 33%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−5.6 →−15.2▼ 9.6#129

MTSU−13.1 →−8.6▲ 4.5#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FIU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#109

Offense

MTSU better ▶

#94

#78

Defense

◀ FIU better

#103

−0.4 #103

Turnovers

◀ FIU better

−0.7 #125

62 plays #117

Pace

MTSU faster ▶

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #113	30.9 #109	Even
Yards / play	5.23 #96	5.83 #87	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #118	+0.15 #97	MTSU
Success rate	39% #109	46% #117	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #105	28.6 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #74	5.93 #97	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	+0.10 #72	Even
Success rate	39% #107	40% #46	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.7 #75	6.8 #92	12.4 #86	5.7 #80	1.2 #133	6.9 #129
MTSU allowed	6.3 #95	7.6 #80	13.9 #82	7.6 #112	9.4 #116	17.0 #121

MTSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #75	7.2 #80	12.9 #82	5.0 #95	4.0 #129	9.0 #121
FIU allowed	8.8 #123	6.6 #52	15.3 #102	4.4 #39	8.0 #94	12.4 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.